A POST-COVID-19 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE CHILEAN NDC REVISION

Last year, Chile updated its Nationally Determined Contributions, moving from intensity-based emissions reductions to an effective emissions target. This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental impacts of this change in the current context of high uncertainty Chile faces with social protests and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3, we performed a sensitivity analysis assuming different levels of economic growth through 2030. Though at first glance the revised commitments appear more ambitious, we found that they could lead to higher emissions in low-growth scenarios. The results show that intensity-based emissions targets indeed become less stringent when assuming high levels of economic growth and thus may result in highly uncertain effective emissions in 2030. On the other hand, given the uncertainty surrounding Chilean economic growth, the updated commitments would be politically more amenable as it would lead to lower welfare losses. In addition, we analyze different redistribution schemes of a CO2 tax and we show that a per capita redistribution rule makes the CO2 tax more progressive and thus fiscally more acceptable.

COVID-19 recovery packages can benefit climate targets and clean energy jobs, but scale of impacts and optimal investment portfolios differ among major economies.

To meet the Paris temperature targets and recover from the effects of the pandemic, many countries have launched economic recovery plans, including specific elements to promote clean energy technologies and green jobs. However, how to successfully manage investment portfolios of green recovery packages to optimize both climate mitigation and employment benefits remains unclear. Here, we use three energy-economic models, combined with a portfolio analysis approach, to find optimal low-carbon technology subsidy combinations in six major emitting regions: Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, and the United States (US). We find that, although numerical estimates differ given different model structures, results consistently show that a >50% investment in solar photovoltaics is more likely to enable CO2 emissions reduction and green jobs, particularly in the EU and China. Our study illustrates the importance of strategically managing investment portfolios in recovery packages to enable optimal outcomes and foster a post-pandemic green economy.

A Post-Covid-19 Economic Assessment of the Chilean Ndc Revision

Last year, Chile updated its Nationally Determined Contributions, moving from intensity-based emissions reductions to an effective emissions target. This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental impacts of this change in the current context of high uncertainty Chile faces with social protests and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3, we performed a sensitivity analysis assuming different levels of economic growth through 2030. Though at first glance the revised commitments appear more ambitious, we found that they could lead to higher emissions in low-growth scenarios. The results show that intensity-based emissions targets indeed become less stringent when assuming high levels of economic growth and thus may result in highly uncertain effective emissions in 2030. On the other hand, given the uncertainty surrounding Chilean economic growth, the updated commitments would be politically more amenable as it would lead to lower welfare losses. In addition, we analyze different redistribution schemes of a CO2 tax and we show that a per capita redistribution rule makes the CO2 tax more progressive and thus fiscally more acceptable.